Tesla is the first to sell 1,000 electric cars for the U.S. highways. Like its Roadster, the company is going zero to sixty in less than four seconds. Tesla is also developing a roomy Model S hatchback that starts at $57,400, about half the price of the Roadster. The Roadster is battery-electric with a 240 mile range; the Model S will have a remarkable electric range option of 300 miles per charge. Tesla is working with shareholder Toyota to bring back the Toyota RAV4 EV, an electric SUV. Tesla is working with shareholder Daimler to put Smart EDs on U.S. streets this year.
Nissan will be the first auto maker to put over 10,000 electric cars on U.S. highways. About 20,000 have made deposits for Nissan LEAF and several cities are in major partnerships. The LEAF can be purchased starting at $32,780 or $349 per month. The Nissan LEAF is battery-electric with a 100 mile range per charge.This 5-door, 5-seat, hatchback has the right size and range for many who drive under 100 miles daily, or for households with more than one car.
Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid (PHV) will build on the million car success of Toyota hybrids. At first glance, the PHV looks like another Prius until you spot the J1772 plug for smart charging. Five hundred PHV are in fleet trails from cities to car sharing services. In 2011, U.S. dealer orders were planned, but with Toyota’s 8 million vehicle recall this is may be delayed. Toyota will initially control costs by only using a 5kWh battery for a 14 mile electric range. In late 2011, Toyota will expand its offerings to include a pure battery-electric FT-EV.
General Motors wants to be the plug-in leader with the Chevy Volt, a plug-in hybrid with 40 miles of electric range and added 300 miles by engaging a small gasoline engine to act as a generator. Chevrolet will deliver over 10,000 in 2011. GM has a complete Voltec Propulsion System roadmap which envisions added offerings of pure battery-electric, E85, and diesel. Converj may become the Cadillac of extend-range electrics. Look for a range versus cost battle with Toyota, as the Volt achieves more electric range by adding to vehicle cost with a 16kWh battery.
Ford will be selling at least three electric cars by the end of 2011. The best seller will be the Ford Focus EV a battery-electric that we expect to aggressively compete with the Nissan Leaf. Ford will be taking orders for a 2012 plug-in hybrid; likely, it will be the Ford Focus available any way the customer wants it: battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, hybrid, or fuel efficient sedan. Ford is already selling the Transit Connect Electric compact van.
Mitsubishi will take orders next year for the 2012 U.S. version of the iMiEV, the best selling EV in Japan. Mitsubishi is currently suggesting a ballpark price in the low 30s. This fun-to-drive 5 door, 4 seat hatchback, will have a wheel base 5 inches wider for the U.S. market, but the micro-compact will still be able to get those precious city parking spaces that no other car can take except the smart. The more powerful U.S. version will have an electric range of 50 to 80 miles with a 16kWh lithium battery.
Fisker Karma is a luxury sports plug-in hybrid with prices starting around $90,000. With a $528 million DOE conditional loan, Fisker is moving into production with plans to start shipping Karmas to dealers in late 2010. A more affordable family sedan is planned for 2012.
Think has been selling its smaller battery-electric City car in Europe for years. Many of the Copenhagen climate delegates were transported with Think EV. With new capital from EnerDel, Valmet, and Kleiner Perkins, Think hopes to have its financial struggles in the rear view mirror and be on U.S. roads by the end of 2011.
Chrysler has about 40,000 of the GEM 25-mph light electric vehicles (LEV) on the U.S. roads in university towns, fleets, and retirement communities. With federal and local tax breaks, the net cost is under $10,000. With the growth of electric cars and charging stations, sales may actually increase for cost-leading LEV. A sub-compact electric Fiat 500 EV is expected to be offered in the U.S. in 2012, priced in the mid-thirties. In a DOE project, 140 Dodge Ram Truck Plug-in Hybrids are being built.
BYD has over $200 million invested by Warren Buffet. BYD is now selling its plug-in hybrid and E6 battery-electric
car in China, but with little success. We expect the plug-in hybrid to be a freeway-speed electric car price leader in the U.S. in 2011. The E6 battery-electric is likely to be more expensive with enough batteries for a 250 electric range. These may take longer than expected to be selling in the U.S. due to tough safety, regulatory hurdles, and charging standards.
CODA plans to deliver an electric car with up to 120 mile charge range using over 33 kWh of lithium batteries from their joint venture with China’s Lishen Power Battery (Lishen). This 4-seat sedan should have more range than the Nissan LEAF and it’s 24kWh battery pack, but may be priced thousands higher than the LEAF. Over $100 million of big name investors back this spin-off of Miles. CODA talks about taking orders by the end of the year, but they appear to be waiting for DOE loans to start manufacturing.
Forecasts and Renewable Energy
Accenture forecasts 1.5 million electric vehicles in the United States by 2015. Over 10 million electric vehicles are easily possible by 2020. Single electric utilities have scenarios for charging over one million electric vehicles in their own service area by 2020. With renewable energy investment required of utilities in 30 states, these utilities are most interested in night time charging of electric vehicles with wind, geothermal, and hydropower. Utilities are also implementing smart grids and incentives for off-peak charging.
By 2011 year end, competition will be intense for electric car leadership. The above Top 10 describe our best guess about the market share leaders for delivered plug-in vehicles on the United States roads in 2011, although not necessarily in order of installed market share. Battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles with range extended by engines or fuel cells were all considered.
Over 100 competitors will be fighting for U.S. share by 2012. Some may be struggle to get significant share due to the time and cost of safety and other regulatory approvals, delays in funding, unpleasant surprises from a battery, drive system, or component supplier. It’s a tough business. Even Tesla had to add 700 pounds and two years to get the first Roadsters in customers’ hands.
Honda is certain to be on lists by 2012, if not next year, with their new battery-electric and plug-in hybrid announcements. Honda Lithium Battery and Electric Car Report.
250 smart fortwo ED will be put into U.S. tests this year using Tesla battery packs, but smart is currently targeting the 2013 model year for the first commercial electric car. It will start taking consumer and fleet orders in 2012. BMW will acclerate electric plans in a couple of years.
Volkswagen may teach everyone how to extend range by making vehicles light. The concept Up Light weighs just over 1,500 pounds, but we don’t expect U.S. sales in 2011. Zenn might be there with a commercialized EEstor ultracap that has been in stealth mode for 10 years.
China could have several price leaders being delivered to U.S. customers. India might bring us a Maharinda Reva or Nano EV that under prices everyone. Subaru could make bigger U.S. electric plans. Don’t count out the good old United States “can do” entrepreneurs with exciting innovation and venture capital backing. Some think that V-Vehicles or Aptera will be on the list.
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